Replication Material for
"The Role of Governmental Weapons Procurements in Forecasting Monthly Fatalities in Intrastate Conflicts: A Semiparametric Hierarchical Hurdle Model" 
by Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann

Just sequantially carry out the scripts: 
1_estimate_models.R (estimated time 6-10 hours)
- in this script the main models are estimated 
2_estimate_no_mcw_models.R (estimated time 6-10 hours)
- in this script the main models are estimated but we leave out the introduced variables (milit_exp, long- and short-term import of MCW) 
3_plots.R (estimated time 20-40 minutes)
- in this script all plots of the main manuscript as well as the Appendix are generated 
- to get all plots the prior two scripts need to by carried out 

Due to newer versions of the used software (mainly the R package mgcv) the exact coefficients can slightly differ from the reported ones in the paper. However, these differences are neglegable in terms of prediction performance as well as substantive conclusions. 

For the main article, the following package versions and platform were used: 

R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29)
Platform: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu (64-bit)
Running under: Debian GNU/Linux 10 (buster)

Matrix products: default
BLAS:   /mnt/shared/spack-v0.16/opt/spack/linux-debian10-skylake_avx512/gcc-8.3.0/r-3.6.3-wm6gjgxhq53aenqzkxerxumxx54s3ys5/rlib/R/lib/libRblas.so
LAPACK: /mnt/shared/spack-v0.16/opt/spack/linux-debian10-skylake_avx512/gcc-8.3.0/r-3.6.3-wm6gjgxhq53aenqzkxerxumxx54s3ys5/rlib/R/lib/libRlapack.so

locale:
 [1] LC_CTYPE=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NUMERIC=C               LC_TIME=en_US.UTF-8       
 [4] LC_COLLATE=en_US.UTF-8     LC_MONETARY=en_US.UTF-8    LC_MESSAGES=en_US.UTF-8   
 [7] LC_PAPER=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NAME=C                  LC_ADDRESS=C              
[10] LC_TELEPHONE=C             LC_MEASUREMENT=en_US.UTF-8 LC_IDENTIFICATION=C       

attached base packages:
[1] grid      parallel  stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
 [1] dplyr_1.0.7             scales_1.1.1            ggsci_2.9               knitr_1.33             
 [5] kableExtra_1.3.4        cowplot_1.1.1           ggpubr_0.4.0            viridis_0.6.1          
 [9] viridisLite_0.4.0       cshapes_2.0             DEoptim_2.2-6           pryr_0.1.4             
[13] countreg_0.2-1          MASS_7.3-53             rosm_0.2.5              GADMTools_3.9-1        
[17] rgdal_1.5-23            sf_0.9-6                classInt_0.4-3          sp_1.4-4               
[21] ggplot2_3.3.3           choroplethrAdmin1_1.1.1 shapefiles_0.7          foreign_0.8-76         
[25] profvis_0.3.7           igraph_1.2.6            lubridate_1.7.10        mgcv_1.8-33            
[29] nlme_3.1-151            Matrix_1.3-0            fastglm_0.0.1           data.table_1.13.4      
[33] stringr_1.4.0           texreg_1.37.5          

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] colorspace_2.0-0    ggsignif_0.6.2      rjson_0.2.20        ellipsis_0.3.2      class_7.3-18       
 [6] rio_0.5.26          httpcode_0.3.0      rstudioapi_0.13     farver_2.1.0        fansi_0.4.2        
[11] xml2_1.3.2          codetools_0.2-18    splines_3.6.3       wesanderson_0.3.6   geojsonlint_0.4.0  
[16] jsonlite_1.7.2      broom_0.7.7         png_0.1-7           rgeos_0.5-5         compiler_3.6.3     
[21] httr_1.4.2          backports_1.2.1     assertthat_0.2.1    cli_2.5.0           htmltools_0.5.1.1  
[26] tools_3.6.3         ggmap_3.0.0         gtable_0.3.0        glue_1.4.2          V8_3.4.2           
[31] Rcpp_1.0.6          carData_3.0-4       cellranger_1.1.0    vctrs_0.3.8         crul_1.1.0         
[36] svglite_2.0.0       xfun_0.24           openxlsx_4.2.3      rvest_1.0.1         lifecycle_1.0.0    
[41] rstatix_0.7.0       hms_1.0.0           states_0.3.1        curl_4.3.1          gridExtra_2.3      
[46] ggspatial_1.1.5     stringi_1.5.3       jsonvalidate_1.1.0  maptools_1.0-2      e1071_1.7-4        
[51] zip_2.1.1           systemfonts_1.0.2   RgoogleMaps_1.4.5.3 rlang_0.4.11        pkgconfig_2.0.3    
[56] bitops_1.0-7        evaluate_0.14       lattice_0.20-44     purrr_0.3.4         labeling_0.4.2     
[61] htmlwidgets_1.5.3   tidyselect_1.1.1    plyr_1.8.6          magrittr_2.0.1      R6_2.5.0           
[66] generics_0.1.0      DBI_1.1.1           pillar_1.6.2        haven_2.4.1         withr_2.4.2        
[71] units_0.7-0         abind_1.4-5         tibble_3.1.3        crayon_1.4.1        car_3.0-10         
[76] rmapshaper_0.4.5    KernSmooth_2.23-18  utf8_1.2.1          rmarkdown_2.9       jpeg_0.1-8.1       
[81] readxl_1.3.1        forcats_0.5.1       webshot_0.5.2       digest_0.6.27       tidyr_1.1.3        
[86] munsell_0.5.0    
